AgenticInvestor

United States Government Revenues

United States · Monthly series · EC-US-GR

Latest, September 2026

557.88B USD

+55.0% from August 2026

Open interactive chartUnited States Government Revenues in the app

1.012T583.7B155.6BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 579.75B USD, with an 80% interval of 506.10B USD to 653.41B USD.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 2026382.49B USD337.26B USD427.72B USD
November 2026329.33B USD303.27B USD355.39B USD
December 2026522.05B USD461.57B USD582.54B USD
January 2027552.93B USD500.01B USD605.84B USD
February 2027301.70B USD244.01B USD359.38B USD
March 2027375.77B USD319.58B USD431.95B USD
April 2027793.36B USD575.05B USD1.01T USD
May 2027383.15B USD302.33B USD463.98B USD
June 2027529.04B USD428.65B USD629.42B USD
July 2027387.39B USD294.52B USD480.25B USD
August 2027358.57B USD312.08B USD405.05B USD
September 2027579.75B USD506.10B USD653.41B USD

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Previous comparisonThe stored comparison uses earlier data or a previous model roster. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Models tested

Exponential smoothing scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.23) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.34). That grade beats the naive forecast. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Statistical, Foundation model, Neural network, Machine learning. Previous model roster.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
Exponential smoothing (statistical)Statistical · CPU0.230.34Serving
Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.230.31Tested
State-space model, 167M (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.240.33Tested
Hierarchical neural network (neural network)Neural network · CPU0.260.41Tested
Gradient-boosted trees (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU0.270.52Tested
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 94% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 2026557.88B USD
August 2026360.03B USD
July 2026334.01B USD
June 2026495.76B USD
May 2026335.51B USD
April 2026837.34B USD
March 2026384.86B USD
February 2026313.12B USD
January 2026560.05B USD
December 2025484.38B USD
November 2025336.00B USD
October 2025404.37B USD
September 2025543.66B USD
August 2025344.31B USD
July 2025338.49B USD
June 2025526.45B USD
May 2025371.23B USD
April 2025850.17B USD
March 2025367.64B USD
February 2025296.42B USD
January 2025513.29B USD
December 2024454.42B USD
November 2024301.75B USD
October 2024326.77B USD

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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