AgenticInvestor

United States Interbank Rate

United States · Monthly series · EC-US-INBR

Latest, September 2024

4.9%

-0.42pp from August 2024

Open interactive chartUnited States Interbank Rate in the app

6.6142.77-1.073October 2014September 2025
History through September 2024, the forecast path to September 2025 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2025: 2.9%, with an 80% interval of -0.9% to 6.5%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20244.6%3.9%5.2%
November 20244.4%3.2%5.4%
December 20244.2%3.1%5.2%
January 20254.1%2.4%5.3%
February 20253.9%2.2%5.1%
March 20253.8%1.8%5.2%
April 20253.6%1.5%5.2%
May 20253.5%0.3%5.8%
June 20253.3%-0.3%6.1%
July 20253.2%-0.9%6.5%
August 20253.0%-1.1%6.6%
September 20252.9%-0.9%6.5%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 84% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2014.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20244.9%
August 20245.3%
July 20245.5%
June 20245.6%
May 20245.6%
April 20245.6%
March 20245.6%
February 20245.6%
January 20245.6%
December 20235.6%
November 20235.6%
October 20235.6%
September 20235.7%
August 20235.7%
July 20235.6%
June 20235.5%
May 20235.5%
April 20235.3%
March 20235.2%
February 20235.0%
January 20234.8%
December 20224.8%
November 20224.8%
October 20224.4%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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