AgenticInvestor

United States Weekly Crude Oil Production

United States · Monthly series · EC-US-WCOP

Latest, November 2026

14,013,000.0 pts

+0.1% from October 2026

Open interactive chartUnited States Weekly Crude Oil Production in the app

15.85M12.31M8.77MDecember 2016November 2027
History through November 2026, the forecast path to November 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for November 2027: 14,232,908.0 pts, with an 80% interval of 12,543,838.8 pts to 15,743,287.3 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
December 202614,077,842.0 pts13,819,939.9 pts14,356,097.2 pts
January 202714,101,316.0 pts13,578,897.1 pts14,591,621.6 pts
February 202714,115,214.0 pts13,485,207.4 pts14,680,256.1 pts
March 202714,128,096.0 pts13,515,572.9 pts14,641,458.2 pts
April 202714,133,862.0 pts13,372,881.1 pts14,828,481.9 pts
May 202714,159,650.0 pts13,360,125.9 pts14,880,345.4 pts
June 202714,168,961.0 pts13,361,240.8 pts14,846,354.7 pts
July 202714,169,714.0 pts13,415,182.4 pts14,864,690.8 pts
August 202714,200,858.0 pts12,732,557.1 pts15,380,994.0 pts
September 202714,205,644.0 pts12,520,875.3 pts15,689,114.4 pts
October 202714,230,930.0 pts12,286,954.3 pts15,847,586.6 pts
November 202714,232,908.0 pts12,543,838.8 pts15,743,287.3 pts

Model: State-space model, 167M (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: State-space model, 167M (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Previous comparisonThe stored comparison uses earlier data or a previous model roster. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Models tested

State-space model, 167M scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.97) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.41). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Machine learning, Statistical, Neural network. Previous model roster.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
State-space model, 167M (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.971.41Serving
Gradient-boosted trees (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU0.991.44Tested
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.000.98Tested
Exponential smoothing (statistical)Statistical · CPU1.091.33Tested
Hierarchical neural network (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.466.20Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

That is the highest of the 120 readings since December 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
November 202614,013,000.0 pts
October 202614,003,000.0 pts
September 202613,955,000.0 pts
August 202613,862,000.0 pts
July 202613,804,000.0 pts
June 202613,810,000.0 pts
May 202613,707,000.0 pts
April 202613,586,000.0 pts
March 202613,657,000.0 pts
February 202613,696,000.0 pts
January 202613,215,000.0 pts
December 202513,827,000.0 pts
November 202513,815,000.0 pts
October 202513,651,000.0 pts
September 202513,505,000.0 pts
August 202513,423,000.0 pts
July 202513,314,000.0 pts
June 202513,433,000.0 pts
May 202513,408,000.0 pts
April 202513,465,000.0 pts
March 202513,580,000.0 pts
February 202513,508,000.0 pts
January 202513,478,000.0 pts
December 202413,573,000.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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