Uruguay Interbank Rate

Name: Uruguay Interbank Rate
Creator: Agentic Investor

Uruguay · Monthly series · EC-UY-INBR

Latest, June 2023

5.7%

+0.22pp from May 2023

Open interactive chartUruguay Interbank Rate in the app

History through June 2023, the forecast path to June 2024 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for June 2024: 6.0%, with an 80% interval of -6.7% to 16.8%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
July 2023	5.8%	5.5%	6.3%
August 2023	5.9%	5.3%	6.6%
September 2023	6.0%	5.2%	6.9%
October 2023	6.0%	4.4%	7.7%
November 2023	6.1%	2.3%	9.4%
December 2023	6.1%	2.3%	9.4%
January 2024	6.1%	2.3%	9.4%
February 2024	6.1%	2.0%	9.6%
March 2024	6.1%	-0.5%	11.5%
April 2024	6.1%	0.2%	10.9%
May 2024	6.1%	-4.4%	15.0%
June 2024	6.0%	-6.7%	16.8%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +28%Beats the no-change baseline over 9 tests (9 tests, 5 won)
Direction: 62%No clear edge over a coin flip (67 of 108 calls right in 9 tests)
Turning points: 2 of 19Anticipated some turns (19 turns in 9 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 28% lowerError ratio 0.72; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 5 / 9Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2014-07-01 to 2023-06-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2023-06-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

That is the highest of the 120 readings since July 2013.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
June 2023	5.7%
May 2023	5.5%
April 2023	5.4%
March 2023	5.2%
February 2023	5.2%
January 2023	5.1%
December 2022	5.2%
November 2022	5.1%
October 2022	4.6%
September 2022	4.0%
August 2022	3.5%
July 2022	3.2%
June 2022	2.6%
May 2022	2.0%
April 2022	1.7%
March 2022	1.2%
February 2022	0.7%
January 2022	0.4%
December 2021	0.3%
November 2021	0.2%
October 2021	0.2%
September 2021	0.2%
August 2021	0.2%
July 2021	0.2%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.