AgenticInvestor

Uruguay Steel Production

Uruguay · Monthly series · EC-UY-SP

Latest, December 2020

5,000.0 pts

+0.0% from November 2020

Open interactive chartUruguay Steel Production in the app

11K4003-2995December 2010December 2021
History through December 2020, the forecast path to December 2021 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2021: 5,079.2 pts, with an 80% interval of 2,095.1 pts to 8,639.7 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 20215,111.7 pts945.3 pts8,689.5 pts
February 20214,258.9 pts-595.6 pts7,065.2 pts
March 20214,487.7 pts-1,457.1 pts7,925.7 pts
April 20214,285.4 pts802.7 pts6,383.0 pts
May 20214,389.8 pts-1,541.4 pts8,079.3 pts
June 20213,952.0 pts-2,994.7 pts9,344.8 pts
July 20214,380.7 pts967.6 pts6,892.5 pts
August 20214,445.7 pts-888.8 pts8,432.4 pts
September 20214,884.5 pts1,038.1 pts8,389.4 pts
October 20214,844.9 pts1,183.1 pts8,399.6 pts
November 20215,491.4 pts3,741.8 pts7,922.2 pts
December 20215,079.2 pts2,095.1 pts8,639.7 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+24%Beats the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 3 won)
Direction
72%No clear edge over a coin flip (52 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points
21 of 28Anticipated most turns (28 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
24% lowerError ratio 0.76; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
3 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2015-01-01 to 2020-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
75%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 23% of the 118 earlier readings since February 2011.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 20205,000.0 pts
November 20205,000.0 pts
October 20204,000.0 pts
September 20205,000.0 pts
August 20202,000.0 pts
July 20202,000.0 pts
June 20202,000.0 pts
May 20205,000.0 pts
April 20203,000.0 pts
March 20205,000.0 pts
February 20205,000.0 pts
January 20206,710.0 pts
December 20195,390.0 pts
November 20196,900.0 pts
October 20195,390.0 pts
September 20195,390.0 pts
August 20195,390.0 pts
July 20195,390.0 pts
June 20194,740.0 pts
May 20194,310.0 pts
April 20195,390.0 pts
March 20194,310.0 pts
February 20193,230.0 pts
January 20196,470.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

More from Agentic Investor

Also stored for Uruguay