AgenticInvestor

South Africa Government Budget Value

South Africa · Monthly series · EC-ZA-GBV

Latest, September 2026

-22.10B ZAR

+7.04B ZAR from August 2026

Open interactive chartSouth Africa Government Budget Value in the app

102B-49.32B-200.7BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: -17.67B ZAR, with an 80% interval of -38.88B ZAR to -218.26M ZAR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 2026-43.62B ZAR-56.93B ZAR-31.62B ZAR
November 2026-13.80B ZAR-29.80B ZAR1.23B ZAR
December 202630.71B ZAR-23.04B ZAR83.89B ZAR
January 2027-78.32B ZAR-96.45B ZAR-60.67B ZAR
February 202719.32B ZAR-12.51B ZAR45.68B ZAR
March 2027-31.39B ZAR-84.48B ZAR16.32B ZAR
April 2027-75.50B ZAR-119.14B ZAR-41.93B ZAR
May 2027-15.47B ZAR-31.43B ZAR-1.04B ZAR
June 202758.21B ZAR5.73B ZAR102.02B ZAR
July 2027-158.48B ZAR-200.66B ZAR-123.72B ZAR
August 2027-37.99B ZAR-66.44B ZAR-15.58B ZAR
September 2027-17.67B ZAR-38.88B ZAR-218.26M ZAR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+65%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
87%Beats a coin flip (125 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
84 of 86Anticipated most turns (86 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
65% lowerError ratio 0.35; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 48% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 2026-22.10B ZAR
August 2026-29.14B ZAR
July 2026-161.58B ZAR
June 202680.13B ZAR
May 2026-14.62B ZAR
April 2026-63.57B ZAR
March 2026-45.61B ZAR
February 202627.28B ZAR
January 2026-69.69B ZAR
December 202538.44B ZAR
November 2025-14.99B ZAR
October 2025-35.83B ZAR
September 2025-15.39B ZAR
August 2025-38.31B ZAR
July 2025-150.85B ZAR
June 202548.75B ZAR
May 2025-10.11B ZAR
April 2025-64.63B ZAR
March 2025-13.11B ZAR
February 202524.22B ZAR
January 2025-62.68B ZAR
December 202421.38B ZAR
November 2024-4.46B ZAR
October 2024-46.09B ZAR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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