South Africa Government Debt To GDP

Name: South Africa Government Debt To GDP
Creator: Agentic Investor

South Africa · Annual series · EC-ZA-GDG

Latest, 2025

78.4%

+2.48pp from 2024

Open interactive chartSouth Africa Government Debt To GDP in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: 82.5%, with an 80% interval of 76.9% to 89.7%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	79.6%	76.8%	82.0%
2027	81.0%	77.1%	85.4%
2028	82.5%	76.9%	89.7%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

At least 6 complete tests are required; 2 are available.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 tests, 2 won)
Direction: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (6 of 6 calls right in 2 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 turns in 2 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 43% lowerError ratio 0.57; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 2 / 2Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2020-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 50%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
The 80% band held too few outcomes; interpret its width with care.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

That is the highest of the 10 readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	78.4%
2024	76.0%
2023	73.2%
2022	70.7%
2021	68.8%
2020	68.9%
2019	56.1%
2018	51.5%
2017	48.6%
2016	47.1%
2015	45.2%
2014	43.2%
2013	40.4%
2012	37.4%
2011	34.7%
2010	31.2%
2009	27.0%
2008	24.0%
2007	24.3%
2006	28.0%
2005	29.6%
2004	30.7%
2003	31.5%
2002	31.8%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.