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GBP/USD

Foreign exchange · Monthly series · FX-GBPUSD

Latest, October 2026

1 USD

+1.0% from September 2026

Open interactive chartGBP/USD in the app

1.4691.2921.116November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 1 USD, with an 80% interval of 1 USD to 1 USD.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 20261 USD1 USD1 USD
December 20261 USD1 USD1 USD
January 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
February 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
March 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
April 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
May 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
June 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
July 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
August 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
September 20271 USD1 USD1 USD
October 20271 USD1 USD1 USD

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical). Forecast generated 2026-11-13.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Exponential smoothing scored lowest on the 6 older tests (1.00) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.00). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Statistical, Foundation model, Neural network, Machine learning.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · CPU1.001.00Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.040.99Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.050.82Tested
ci-proto (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.101.08Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU1.161.31Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 73% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 20261 USD
September 20261 USD
August 20261 USD
July 20261 USD
June 20261 USD
May 20261 USD
April 20261 USD
March 20261 USD
February 20261 USD
January 20261 USD
December 20251 USD
November 20251 USD
October 20251 USD
September 20251 USD
August 20251 USD
July 20251 USD
June 20251 USD
May 20251 USD
April 20251 USD
March 20251 USD
February 20251 USD
January 20251 USD
December 20241 USD
November 20241 USD

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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