Argus Propane Far East Index vs. European Propane CIF ARA (Argus) Futures

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+23%Beats the no-change baseline over 10 tests (10 tests, 6 won)

Direction

68%No clear edge over a coin flip (82 of 120 calls right in 10 tests)

Turning points

6 of 58Anticipated some turns (58 turns in 10 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

23% lowerError ratio 0.77; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

6 / 10Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2016-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.