AgenticInvestor

Nikkei 225

Equity index · Monthly series · IX-NI225

Latest, October 2026

63,289.9 pts

-5.2% from September 2026

Open interactive chartNikkei 225 in the app

91.9K55.1K18.31KNovember 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 62,555.1 pts, with an 80% interval of 47,116.8 pts to 81,986.8 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202663,146.6 pts57,278.8 pts70,299.3 pts
December 202663,084.6 pts54,606.2 pts73,715.7 pts
January 202763,025.3 pts54,127.1 pts73,678.5 pts
February 202762,985.7 pts49,373.6 pts79,749.4 pts
March 202763,003.2 pts48,540.1 pts80,312.1 pts
April 202762,996.5 pts46,777.1 pts82,962.3 pts
May 202762,857.7 pts47,362.5 pts81,569.9 pts
June 202762,632.6 pts39,589.9 pts91,898.6 pts
July 202762,574.0 pts44,317.5 pts85,106.0 pts
August 202762,585.9 pts48,491.4 pts80,167.7 pts
September 202762,551.0 pts41,407.6 pts89,121.9 pts
October 202762,555.1 pts47,116.8 pts81,986.8 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+4%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 4 won)
Direction
56%No clear edge over a coin flip (40 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points
6 of 32Anticipated some turns (32 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
4 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Agentic Investor TSFM scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.95) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.96). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.950.96Serving
ci-proto (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.960.94Tested
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · CPU1.000.98Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU1.071.16Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.460.74Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 96% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202663,289.9 pts
September 202666,753.5 pts
August 202666,311.7 pts
July 202664,361.8 pts
June 202670,062.1 pts
May 202666,329.3 pts
April 202659,284.7 pts
March 202651,063.7 pts
February 202658,850.2 pts
January 202653,322.8 pts
December 202550,339.4 pts
November 202550,253.9 pts
October 202552,411.3 pts
September 202544,932.6 pts
August 202542,718.4 pts
July 202541,069.8 pts
June 202540,487.2 pts
May 202537,964.9 pts
April 202536,045.2 pts
March 202535,617.3 pts
February 202537,155.4 pts
January 202539,572.4 pts
December 202439,894.3 pts
November 202438,207.8 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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