AgenticVietnam Core Inflation YoY YTD
Prices · Monthly series · VNCIR
Latest, October 2026
4.2%
-0.02pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 3.3%, with an 80% interval of -3.3% to 8.3%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| December 2026 | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| January 2027 | 4.0% | -0.6% | 6.7% |
| February 2027 | 3.9% | -0.8% | 6.6% |
| March 2027 | 3.8% | -0.5% | 6.5% |
| April 2027 | 3.6% | -1.0% | 6.6% |
| May 2027 | 3.5% | -0.7% | 6.4% |
| June 2027 | 3.4% | -0.9% | 6.4% |
| July 2027 | 3.4% | -1.2% | 6.6% |
| August 2027 | 3.3% | -1.9% | 7.2% |
| September 2027 | 3.3% | -2.5% | 7.7% |
| October 2027 | 3.3% | -3.3% | 8.3% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 29% lowerError ratio 0.71; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 5 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2018-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Core inflation is forecast to fall to 3.26% by Oct 2027, down from 4.24% in Oct 2026.
Trajectory: 4.24% (Oct 2026) to 3.26% (Oct 2027), supported by limited SBV easing and tight liquidity management.
Trajectory: 4.19–4.17% (Nov–Dec 2026) then steady decline to 3.26% (Oct 2027), as export-led price pressures normalize despite large Samsung and Intel FDI.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4.2% |
| September 2026 | 4.3% |
| August 2026 | 4.2% |
| July 2026 | 4.2% |
| June 2026 | 4.1% |
| May 2026 | 4.0% |
| April 2026 | 3.9% |
| March 2026 | 3.6% |
| February 2026 | 3.5% |
| January 2026 | 3.2% |
| December 2025 | 3.2% |
| November 2025 | 3.2% |
| October 2025 | 3.2% |
| September 2025 | 3.2% |
| August 2025 | 3.2% |
| July 2025 | 3.2% |
| June 2025 | 3.2% |
| May 2025 | 3.1% |
| April 2025 | 3.0% |
| March 2025 | 3.0% |
| February 2025 | 3.0% |
| January 2025 | 3.1% |
| December 2024 | 2.7% |
| November 2024 | 2.7% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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