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Vietnam Inflation Rate MoM

Prices · Monthly series · VNIRMM

Latest, October 2026

0.2%

-0.42pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartInflation Rate MoM in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 0.2%, with an 80% interval of 0.1% to 0.5%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 20260.2%-0.1%0.6%
December 20260.2%-0.2%0.6%
January 20270.4%-0.1%1.1%
February 20270.7%-0.1%1.8%
March 20270.1%-0.5%0.9%
April 20270.1%-0.1%0.3%
May 20270.3%0.1%0.5%
June 20270.2%-0.2%0.8%
July 20270.2%-0.1%0.7%
August 20270.3%-0.2%0.8%
September 20270.3%-0.0%0.8%
October 20270.2%0.1%0.5%

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models). Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)

Error vs baseline
11% lowerError ratio 0.89; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Commentary

MoM inflation forecast at +0.22% in Nov 2026, staying low-positive through mid-2027.

Forecast +0.22% (Nov) vs Oct +0.20% and Sep +0.62% — driven by domestic fuel-price adjustments linked to global energy markets.

Trajectory: Feb 2027 +0.71% and Jan +0.44% reflect export-led demand from electronics, rapid FDI and front-loading to the US market.

Trajectory: Wide 80% CIs (e.g., Mar CI [-0.54, +0.87]) show uncertainty; monetary stance and fuel/electricity tax adjustments will determine the path.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 20260.2%
September 20260.6%
August 20260.5%
July 2026-0.1%
June 2026-0.4%
May 20260.3%
April 20260.8%
March 20261.2%
February 20261.1%
January 20260.1%
December 20250.2%
November 20250.5%
October 20250.2%
September 20250.4%
August 20250.1%
July 20250.1%
June 20250.5%
May 20250.2%
April 20250.1%
March 2025-0.0%
February 20250.3%
January 20251.0%
December 20240.3%
November 20240.1%

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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