GOLD

Precious metals · Monthly series · EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD

Latest, October 2026

3,876.91 USD (exchange quote)

-7.2% from September 2026

Open interactive chartGOLD in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 4,117.88 USD (exchange quote), with an 80% interval of 2,625.34 USD (exchange quote) to 5,610.42 USD (exchange quote).

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
November 2026	3,897.02 USD (exchange quote)	3,429.77 USD (exchange quote)	4,364.27 USD (exchange quote)
December 2026	3,917.10 USD (exchange quote)	3,275.32 USD (exchange quote)	4,558.88 USD (exchange quote)
January 2027	3,937.18 USD (exchange quote)	3,628.04 USD (exchange quote)	4,246.32 USD (exchange quote)
February 2027	3,957.25 USD (exchange quote)	3,451.27 USD (exchange quote)	4,463.24 USD (exchange quote)
March 2027	3,977.33 USD (exchange quote)	2,735.96 USD (exchange quote)	5,218.70 USD (exchange quote)
April 2027	3,997.41 USD (exchange quote)	2,488.57 USD (exchange quote)	5,506.25 USD (exchange quote)
May 2027	4,017.49 USD (exchange quote)	2,580.48 USD (exchange quote)	5,454.49 USD (exchange quote)
June 2027	4,037.57 USD (exchange quote)	2,798.67 USD (exchange quote)	5,276.46 USD (exchange quote)
July 2027	4,057.64 USD (exchange quote)	2,630.13 USD (exchange quote)	5,485.16 USD (exchange quote)
August 2027	4,077.72 USD (exchange quote)	2,752.27 USD (exchange quote)	5,403.17 USD (exchange quote)
September 2027	4,097.80 USD (exchange quote)	3,167.11 USD (exchange quote)	5,028.48 USD (exchange quote)
October 2027	4,117.88 USD (exchange quote)	2,625.34 USD (exchange quote)	5,610.42 USD (exchange quote)

Model: AutoETS (statistical). Forecast generated 2026-11-04.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: AutoETS (statistical)

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

AutoETS scored lowest on the 2 older tests (1.00) and was chosen. The 3 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.90). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Statistical, Neural network, Machine learning, Foundation model.

Every model tested on this series.
Model	Class / library	Older tests	Recent tests	Role
AutoETS (statistical)	Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU	1.00	0.90	Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)	Benchmark · CPU	1.00	1.00	Benchmark
N-HiTS (neural network)	Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU	1.14	1.04	Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)	Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU	1.28	0.86	Tested
Timestral (foundation model)	Foundation model · Timestral · GPU	1.28	0.95	Tested

Reading

It is above 88% of the 101 earlier readings since May 2018.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
October 2026	3,876.91 USD (exchange quote)
September 2026	4,175.99 USD (exchange quote)
August 2026	4,438.23 USD (exchange quote)
July 2026	4,046.93 USD (exchange quote)
June 2026	3,980.15 USD (exchange quote)
May 2026	4,515.62 USD (exchange quote)
April 2026	4,627.08 USD (exchange quote)
March 2026	4,681.11 USD (exchange quote)
February 2026	5,280.41 USD (exchange quote)
January 2026	4,883.24 USD (exchange quote)
December 2025	4,313.36 USD (exchange quote)
November 2025	4,246.00 USD (exchange quote)
October 2025	4,003.26 USD (exchange quote)
September 2025	3,862.29 USD (exchange quote)
August 2025	3,475.26 USD (exchange quote)
July 2025	3,290.85 USD (exchange quote)
June 2025	3,320.47 USD (exchange quote)
May 2025	3,291.12 USD (exchange quote)
April 2025	3,230.42 USD (exchange quote)
March 2025	3,146.35 USD (exchange quote)
February 2025	2,859.22 USD (exchange quote)
January 2025	2,800.76 USD (exchange quote)
December 2024	2,624.07 USD (exchange quote)
November 2024	2,650.45 USD (exchange quote)

Source

Data: EASYMARKETS feed via TradingView.