AgenticInvestor

Israel Business Confidence Index

Israel · Monthly series · EC-IL-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

19.9%

-1.38pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartIsrael Business Confidence Index in the app

27.384.189-19November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 19.3%, with an 80% interval of -5.6% to 26.1%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202620.0%17.4%21.5%
December 202620.2%15.5%22.4%
January 202720.9%15.1%23.2%
February 202720.9%11.8%23.9%
March 202720.6%0.9%26.6%
April 202720.7%-2.1%27.4%
May 202720.9%4.2%25.5%
June 202720.6%-1.8%26.5%
July 202720.5%1.6%25.5%
August 202720.7%0.5%26.0%
September 202720.3%1.1%25.5%
October 202719.3%-5.6%26.1%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+6%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 4 won)
Direction
45%No clear edge over a coin flip (65 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
27 of 67Anticipated some turns (67 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
6% lowerError ratio 0.94; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
4 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 39% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202619.9%
September 202621.2%
August 202620.1%
July 202618.1%
June 202616.9%
May 202615.3%
April 20268.2%
March 20264.6%
February 202619.5%
January 202620.5%
December 202520.9%
November 202519.7%
October 202519.8%
September 202518.0%
August 202520.1%
July 202518.4%
June 202514.8%
May 202523.0%
April 202520.5%
March 202521.8%
February 202522.5%
January 202521.8%
December 202418.7%
November 202415.8%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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