AgenticInvestor

Italy Business Confidence Index

Italy · Monthly series · EC-IT-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

91.9%

+0.00pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartItaly Business Confidence Index in the app

105.284.664October 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 94.5%, with an 80% interval of 87.4% to 105.1%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202692.3%90.9%93.5%
December 202692.5%90.6%94.4%
January 202792.8%90.5%95.4%
February 202793.1%90.2%96.4%
March 202793.5%90.2%97.5%
April 202793.6%89.7%98.6%
May 202793.9%89.5%99.7%
June 202794.0%89.1%100.8%
July 202794.1%88.6%101.8%
August 202794.2%88.2%102.8%
September 202794.4%87.8%104.0%
October 202794.5%87.4%105.1%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 55% of the 118 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202691.9%
September 202691.9%
August 202690.2%
July 202689.8%
June 202688.8%
May 202688.3%
April 202688.1%
March 202688.8%
February 202688.4%
January 202689.0%
December 202588.3%
November 202589.3%
October 202588.2%
September 202587.2%
August 202587.5%
July 202588.0%
June 202587.7%
May 202587.0%
April 202586.2%
March 202586.1%
February 202586.9%
January 202586.5%
December 202485.7%
November 202486.1%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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