AgenticInvestor

Italy Balance Of Trade

Italy · Monthly series · EC-IT-BOT

Latest, September 2026

2.08B EUR

+14.2% from August 2026

Open interactive chartItaly Balance Of Trade in the app

11.72B1.081B-9.558BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 2.45B EUR, with an 80% interval of -2.12B EUR to 6.03B EUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20264.65B EUR3.56B EUR5.68B EUR
November 20264.08B EUR2.95B EUR5.10B EUR
December 20265.09B EUR3.32B EUR6.68B EUR
January 2027324.13M EUR-2.43B EUR3.08B EUR
February 20274.37B EUR1.85B EUR6.49B EUR
March 20274.66B EUR2.92B EUR6.23B EUR
April 20273.38B EUR-94.69M EUR6.35B EUR
May 20275.16B EUR2.61B EUR7.37B EUR
June 20274.50B EUR1.54B EUR7.09B EUR
July 20277.31B EUR1.79B EUR11.72B EUR
August 20271.73B EUR-1.30B EUR4.10B EUR
September 20272.45B EUR-2.12B EUR6.03B EUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+30%Beats the no-change baseline over 11 tests (11 tests, 10 won)
Direction
83%Beats a coin flip (110 of 132 calls right in 11 tests)
Turning points
83 of 86Anticipated most turns (86 turns in 11 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
30% lowerError ratio 0.70; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
10 / 11Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2015-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 27% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20262.08B EUR
August 20261.82B EUR
July 20268.25B EUR
June 20264.34B EUR
May 20264.95B EUR
April 20264.42B EUR
March 20264.81B EUR
February 20264.98B EUR
January 20261.13B EUR
December 20255.16B EUR
November 20254.33B EUR
October 20253.71B EUR
September 20251.88B EUR
August 2025800.00M EUR
July 20257.83B EUR
June 20255.38B EUR
May 20256.10B EUR
April 20252.45B EUR
March 20254.71B EUR
February 20254.44B EUR
January 2025-289.00M EUR
December 20245.15B EUR
November 20243.39B EUR
October 20244.62B EUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

More from Agentic Investor

Also stored for Italy