AgenticInvestor

Jamaica Tourist Arrivals

Jamaica · Monthly series · EC-JM-TA

Latest, December 2020

90,164.0 pts

+82.5% from November 2020

Open interactive chartJamaica Tourist Arrivals in the app

487.7K235.3K-17.15KJanuary 2011December 2021
History through December 2020, the forecast path to December 2021 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2021: 104,007.3 pts, with an 80% interval of 18,747.1 pts to 268,922.7 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 202180,493.1 pts42,687.3 pts122,690.7 pts
February 202173,753.5 pts33,313.7 pts119,748.0 pts
March 202178,175.4 pts-1,420.0 pts183,178.4 pts
April 202151,663.2 pts11,388.4 pts107,662.4 pts
May 202133,048.4 pts1,876.1 pts99,782.3 pts
June 202145,181.4 pts15,088.8 pts89,634.5 pts
July 202159,454.1 pts10,053.4 pts122,889.4 pts
August 202149,396.1 pts3,836.1 pts113,884.0 pts
September 202134,607.2 pts397.6 pts110,025.1 pts
October 202151,495.4 pts-17,149.0 pts158,759.0 pts
November 202169,264.6 pts-6,290.8 pts195,488.1 pts
December 2021104,007.3 pts18,747.1 pts268,922.7 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+67%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
92%Beats a coin flip (133 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
58 of 59Anticipated most turns (59 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
67% lowerError ratio 0.33; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2009-01-01 to 2020-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 7% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2011.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 202090,164.0 pts
November 202049,413.0 pts
October 202045,106.0 pts
September 202028,648.0 pts
August 202043,813.0 pts
July 202041,941.0 pts
June 20207,188.0 pts
May 20200.0 pts
April 20200.0 pts
March 2020177,318.0 pts
February 2020409,721.0 pts
January 2020436,363.0 pts
December 2019487,391.0 pts
November 2019328,919.0 pts
October 2019275,398.0 pts
September 2019204,999.0 pts
August 2019295,766.0 pts
July 2019348,022.0 pts
June 2019305,440.0 pts
May 2019285,001.0 pts
April 2019366,425.0 pts
March 2019448,151.0 pts
February 2019422,876.0 pts
January 2019465,535.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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