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Japan Youth Unemployment Rate

Japan · Monthly series · EC-JP-YUR

Latest, September 2026

3.5%

+0.00pp from August 2026

Open interactive chartJapan Youth Unemployment Rate in the app

5.33.9592.619October 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 3.4%, with an 80% interval of 2.8% to 4.1%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20263.5%3.0%4.0%
November 20263.5%2.7%4.3%
December 20263.5%3.2%3.8%
January 20273.5%3.2%3.8%
February 20273.5%3.1%3.9%
March 20273.5%2.9%4.0%
April 20273.5%2.8%4.1%
May 20273.5%2.8%4.1%
June 20273.4%3.1%3.8%
July 20273.5%2.8%4.1%
August 20273.4%2.6%4.2%
September 20273.4%2.8%4.1%

Model: Encoder-only transformer, 120M (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Encoder-only transformer, 120M (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aNot evaluated
Direction
n/aNot evaluated
Turning points
n/aNot evaluated
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 8% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20263.5%
August 20263.5%
July 20263.4%
June 20264.2%
May 20264.3%
April 20263.6%
March 20263.8%
February 20263.8%
January 20264.3%
December 20252.7%
November 20253.1%
October 20253.5%
September 20253.9%
August 20254.2%
July 20254.2%
June 20253.9%
May 20254.2%
April 20254.0%
March 20253.9%
February 20254.0%
January 20254.1%
December 20244.0%
November 20243.4%
October 20243.7%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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