Kenya CO2 Emissions

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

0%Matches the no-change baseline over 11 tests (11 tests, 6 won)

Direction

64%No clear edge over a coin flip (21 of 33 calls right in 11 tests)

Turning points

2 of 9Anticipated some turns (9 turns in 11 tests, 5 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

About the sameError ratio 1.00; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

6 / 11Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1992-12-01 to 2024-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

91%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• The 80% band held more than expected outcomes; interpret its width with care.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.