Kenya Consumer Spending

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+40%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)

Direction

97%Beats a coin flip (35 of 36 calls right in 12 tests)

Turning points

n/aToo few tests (1 turn, 8 needed) (1 turn in 12 tests, 11 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

40% lowerError ratio 0.60; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1990-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

92%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• The 80% band held more than expected outcomes; interpret its width with care.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.