AgenticInvestor

Lithuania Manufacturing Production YoY

Lithuania · Monthly series · EC-LT-MPRYY

Latest, September 2026

7.6%

+4.00pp from August 2026

Open interactive chartLithuania Manufacturing Production YoY in the app

30.67.7-15.2October 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 4.5%, with an 80% interval of -3.4% to 13.0%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20266.1%0.8%11.5%
November 20266.0%2.5%9.7%
December 20266.5%2.5%10.7%
January 20276.0%-0.3%12.7%
February 20275.9%-0.8%13.2%
March 20276.2%-1.0%14.1%
April 20274.7%-2.1%11.8%
May 20275.6%3.2%8.2%
June 20274.9%0.1%10.1%
July 20274.3%0.2%8.8%
August 20274.9%1.5%8.6%
September 20274.5%-3.4%13.0%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+19%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 10 won)
Direction
83%Beats a coin flip (119 of 143 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
42 of 73Anticipated most turns (73 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
19% lowerError ratio 0.81; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 70% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20267.6%
August 20263.6%
July 20266.7%
June 20268.1%
May 20262.0%
April 20268.3%
March 20265.5%
February 20264.3%
January 20261.3%
December 20251.4%
November 20253.0%
October 20251.7%
September 2025-3.0%
August 20250.4%
July 20250.9%
June 20252.9%
May 20251.6%
April 20251.7%
March 20257.1%
February 20258.3%
January 202511.2%
December 20248.4%
November 20246.4%
October 20241.5%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

More from Agentic Investor

Also stored for Lithuania