Morocco Precipitation

Name: Morocco Precipitation
Creator: Agentic Investor

Morocco · Annual series · EC-MA-PRCP

Latest, 2024

215.0 pts

+6.1% from 2023

Open interactive chartMorocco Precipitation in the app

History through 2024, the forecast path to 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2027: 277.6 pts, with an 80% interval of 181.5 pts to 384.4 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2025	270.6 pts	165.2 pts	389.7 pts
2026	275.5 pts	180.2 pts	384.9 pts
2027	277.6 pts	181.5 pts	384.4 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +21%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
Direction: 64%No clear edge over a coin flip (23 of 36 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points: 7 of 18Anticipated some turns (18 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 21% lowerError ratio 0.79; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 1989-12-01 to 2024-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 11% of the 9 earlier readings since 2015.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2024	215.0 pts
2023	202.6 pts
2022	261.3 pts
2021	265.8 pts
2020	229.2 pts
2019	226.7 pts
2018	427.4 pts
2017	222.0 pts
2016	292.9 pts
2015	233.1 pts
2014	312.7 pts
2013	275.9 pts
2012	330.7 pts
2011	371.7 pts
2010	489.1 pts
2009	357.0 pts
2008	376.0 pts
2007	265.5 pts
2006	343.2 pts
2005	240.7 pts
2004	295.6 pts
2003	372.0 pts
2002	345.7 pts
2001	252.2 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.