AgenticInvestor

Montenegro Tourist Arrivals

Montenegro · Monthly series · EC-ME-TA

Latest, September 2026

207,118.0 pts

-21.7% from August 2026

Open interactive chartMontenegro Tourist Arrivals in the app

297.6K148.9K103October 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 208,217.4 pts, with an 80% interval of 169,820.3 pts to 237,839.5 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 2026139,417.3 pts118,212.6 pts157,408.8 pts
November 202662,887.0 pts54,493.3 pts73,082.5 pts
December 202642,280.3 pts34,705.6 pts52,498.3 pts
January 202735,377.9 pts28,003.8 pts45,241.1 pts
February 202742,184.5 pts34,646.7 pts53,333.6 pts
March 202764,185.2 pts48,732.9 pts83,580.0 pts
April 2027120,392.9 pts87,860.5 pts150,927.2 pts
May 2027175,100.8 pts143,581.1 pts203,549.0 pts
June 2027209,845.1 pts186,061.9 pts233,925.4 pts
July 2027245,237.9 pts219,454.8 pts270,486.2 pts
August 2027260,114.5 pts217,128.6 pts297,642.9 pts
September 2027208,217.4 pts169,820.3 pts237,839.5 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+74%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
91%Beats a coin flip (131 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
24 of 30Anticipated most turns (30 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
74% lowerError ratio 0.26; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 92% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 2026207,118.0 pts
August 2026264,475.0 pts
July 2026244,754.0 pts
June 2026206,990.0 pts
May 2026169,877.0 pts
April 2026107,939.0 pts
March 202656,306.0 pts
February 202641,317.0 pts
January 202632,268.0 pts
December 202536,079.0 pts
November 202550,061.0 pts
October 2025137,374.0 pts
September 2025189,447.0 pts
August 2025244,904.0 pts
July 2025234,403.0 pts
June 2025195,642.0 pts
May 2025169,353.0 pts
April 2025117,801.0 pts
March 202554,965.0 pts
February 202539,969.0 pts
January 202534,770.0 pts
December 202439,174.0 pts
November 202457,536.0 pts
October 2024126,786.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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