Maldives Current Account

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-11%Trails the no-change baseline over 9 tests (9 tests, 4 won)

Direction

44%No clear edge over a coin flip (12 of 27 calls right in 9 tests)

Turning points

0 of 11Anticipated no turn, as the no-change baseline does (11 turns in 9 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

11% higherError ratio 1.11; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

4 / 9Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1999-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.