Mozambique Industrial Production YoY

Name: Mozambique Industrial Production YoY
Creator: Agentic Investor

Mozambique · Monthly series · EC-MZ-IPYY

Latest, March 2023

0.4%

-6.90pp from February 2023

Open interactive chartMozambique Industrial Production YoY in the app

History through March 2023, the forecast path to March 2024 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for March 2024: 3.6%, with an 80% interval of -19.6% to 25.5%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
April 2023	-1.2%	-12.5%	11.1%
May 2023	-0.1%	-19.4%	19.2%
June 2023	1.3%	-23.6%	25.2%
July 2023	1.6%	-25.5%	28.0%
August 2023	1.7%	-29.1%	32.3%
September 2023	1.9%	-11.6%	15.2%
October 2023	2.6%	-9.1%	14.0%
November 2023	3.1%	-20.8%	25.9%
December 2023	3.4%	-7.2%	13.4%
January 2024	3.3%	-15.1%	21.0%
February 2024	3.5%	-24.7%	30.2%
March 2024	3.6%	-19.6%	25.5%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Weak evidence

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: -13%Trails the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 3 won)
Direction: 49%No clear edge over a coin flip (47 of 95 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points: 13 of 40Anticipated some turns (40 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 13% higherError ratio 1.13; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 3 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2015-04-01 to 2023-03-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2023-03-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 24% of the 119 earlier readings since April 2013.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
March 2023	0.4%
February 2023	7.3%
January 2023	8.9%
December 2022	9.3%
November 2022	10.2%
October 2022	22.2%
September 2022	31.1%
August 2022	27.3%
July 2022	14.8%
June 2022	0.3%
May 2022	1.5%
April 2022	12.8%
March 2022	13.9%
February 2022	15.5%
January 2022	16.5%
December 2021	19.4%
November 2021	9.9%
October 2021	1.1%
September 2021	-1.0%
August 2021	15.5%
July 2021	11.2%
June 2021	2.3%
May 2021	-10.8%
April 2021	-14.6%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.