AgenticInvestor

Mozambique Producer Price Index

Mozambique · Monthly series · EC-MZ-PPI

Latest, March 2023

141.1 pts

+1.4% from February 2023

Open interactive chartMozambique Producer Price Index in the app

253.7174.395April 2013March 2024
History through March 2023, the forecast path to March 2024 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for March 2024: 139.7 pts, with an 80% interval of 101.2 pts to 198.9 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
April 2023140.9 pts129.5 pts152.1 pts
May 2023140.7 pts117.7 pts165.8 pts
June 2023140.9 pts117.6 pts167.8 pts
July 2023140.8 pts106.5 pts182.1 pts
August 2023140.8 pts116.6 pts170.8 pts
September 2023140.6 pts108.1 pts183.2 pts
October 2023140.5 pts113.3 pts177.2 pts
November 2023140.4 pts113.7 pts177.4 pts
December 2023140.2 pts107.0 pts187.1 pts
January 2024139.9 pts112.4 pts180.2 pts
February 2024139.8 pts99.1 pts201.4 pts
March 2024139.7 pts101.2 pts198.9 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+1%Matches the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 5 won)
Direction
56%No clear edge over a coin flip (53 of 95 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points
8 of 51Anticipated some turns (51 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
1% lowerError ratio 0.99; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
5 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2015-04-01 to 2023-03-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 49% of the 119 earlier readings since April 2013.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
March 2023141.1 pts
February 2023139.2 pts
January 2023138.4 pts
December 2022140.2 pts
November 2022139.6 pts
October 2022138.3 pts
September 2022145.2 pts
August 2022141.6 pts
July 2022148.0 pts
June 2022157.8 pts
May 2022144.9 pts
April 2022155.0 pts
March 2022148.8 pts
February 2022145.2 pts
January 2022135.4 pts
December 2021145.5 pts
November 2021143.5 pts
October 2021134.7 pts
September 2021113.6 pts
August 2021117.3 pts
July 2021106.1 pts
June 2021107.6 pts
May 2021110.9 pts
April 2021112.9 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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