New Caledonia GDP YoY

Name: New Caledonia GDP YoY
Creator: Agentic Investor

New Caledonia · Annual series · EC-NC-GDPYY

Latest, 2024

-13.5%

-16.30pp from 2023

Open interactive chartNew Caledonia GDP YoY in the app

History through 2024, the forecast path to 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2027: -2.8%, with an 80% interval of -18.5% to 5.7%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2025	-6.1%	-17.7%	3.3%
2026	-3.4%	-17.6%	5.2%
2027	-2.8%	-18.5%	5.7%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

At least 6 complete tests are required; 2 are available.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 tests, 1 won)
Direction: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 of 6 calls right in 2 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 turns in 2 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 7% higherError ratio 1.07; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 1 / 2Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2019-12-01 to 2024-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 0%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
The 80% band held too few outcomes; interpret its width with care.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

That is the lowest of the 10 readings since 2015.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2024	-13.5%
2023	2.8%
2022	3.5%
2021	-2.1%
2020	-2.4%
2019	-1.4%
2018	0.4%
2017	1.6%
2016	-0.2%
2015	0.8%
2014	1.8%
2013	1.9%
2012	1.8%
2011	4.4%
2010	6.9%
2009	2.3%
2008	0.6%
2007	4.2%
2006	5.7%
2005	3.6%
2004	3.9%
2003	4.8%
2002	2.5%
2001	2.3%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.