Panama Imports
Panama · Monthly series · EC-PA-IMP
Latest, July 2026
1.65B PAB
+15.3% from June 2026
Forecast
Forecast for July 2027: 1.53B PAB, with an 80% interval of 1.28B PAB to 1.81B PAB.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 1.48B PAB | 1.28B PAB | 1.70B PAB |
| September 2026 | 1.47B PAB | 1.34B PAB | 1.61B PAB |
| October 2026 | 1.55B PAB | 1.28B PAB | 1.83B PAB |
| November 2026 | 1.46B PAB | 1.24B PAB | 1.71B PAB |
| December 2026 | 1.47B PAB | 1.23B PAB | 1.73B PAB |
| January 2027 | 1.43B PAB | 1.13B PAB | 1.77B PAB |
| February 2027 | 1.35B PAB | 874.34M PAB | 1.84B PAB |
| March 2027 | 1.52B PAB | 1.04B PAB | 2.05B PAB |
| April 2027 | 1.47B PAB | 1.16B PAB | 1.80B PAB |
| May 2027 | 1.51B PAB | 1.11B PAB | 1.96B PAB |
| June 2027 | 1.52B PAB | 1.21B PAB | 1.88B PAB |
| July 2027 | 1.53B PAB | 1.28B PAB | 1.81B PAB |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +3%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
- Direction
- 56%No clear edge over a coin flip (81 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 65 of 87Anticipated most turns (87 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 3% lowerError ratio 0.97; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-08-01 to 2026-07-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-07-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
That is the highest of the 120 readings since August 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| July 2026 | 1.65B PAB |
| June 2026 | 1.43B PAB |
| May 2026 | 1.44B PAB |
| April 2026 | 1.52B PAB |
| March 2026 | 1.35B PAB |
| February 2026 | 1.02B PAB |
| January 2026 | 1.05B PAB |
| December 2025 | 1.30B PAB |
| November 2025 | 1.04B PAB |
| October 2025 | 1.40B PAB |
| September 2025 | 1.19B PAB |
| August 2025 | 1.12B PAB |
| July 2025 | 1.28B PAB |
| June 2025 | 1.11B PAB |
| May 2025 | 1.16B PAB |
| April 2025 | 1.19B PAB |
| March 2025 | 1.05B PAB |
| February 2025 | 1.14B PAB |
| January 2025 | 1.16B PAB |
| December 2024 | 1.14B PAB |
| November 2024 | 1.06B PAB |
| October 2024 | 1.35B PAB |
| September 2024 | 1.17B PAB |
| August 2024 | 1.21B PAB |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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