AgenticInvestor

Puerto Rico Building Permits

Puerto Rico · Monthly series · EC-PR-BP

Latest, December 2015

325.0 pts

+32.1% from November 2015

Open interactive chartPuerto Rico Building Permits in the app

1060622.1184.3January 2006December 2016
History through December 2015, the forecast path to December 2016 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2016: 287.4 pts, with an 80% interval of 197.0 pts to 402.3 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 2016254.8 pts219.6 pts293.8 pts
February 2016286.6 pts242.5 pts333.3 pts
March 2016317.5 pts271.3 pts368.7 pts
April 2016315.7 pts249.4 pts391.3 pts
May 2016327.5 pts289.2 pts373.7 pts
June 2016325.3 pts261.3 pts400.5 pts
July 2016273.7 pts241.0 pts311.1 pts
August 2016330.9 pts277.4 pts397.7 pts
September 2016328.9 pts270.6 pts405.1 pts
October 2016318.2 pts250.6 pts404.2 pts
November 2016272.7 pts184.3 pts387.3 pts
December 2016287.4 pts197.0 pts402.3 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+5%Matches the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 6 won)
Direction
69%No clear edge over a coin flip (65 of 94 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points
40 of 50Anticipated most turns (50 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
5% lowerError ratio 0.95; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
6 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2008-01-01 to 2015-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 18% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2006.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 2015325.0 pts
November 2015246.0 pts
October 2015346.0 pts
September 2015350.0 pts
August 2015330.0 pts
July 2015285.0 pts
June 2015311.0 pts
May 2015330.0 pts
April 2015283.0 pts
March 2015325.0 pts
February 2015253.0 pts
January 2015239.0 pts
December 2014325.0 pts
November 2014246.0 pts
October 2014346.0 pts
September 2014350.0 pts
August 2014330.0 pts
July 2014285.0 pts
June 2014349.0 pts
May 2014333.0 pts
April 2014330.0 pts
March 2014309.0 pts
February 2014212.0 pts
January 2014256.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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