Saudi Arabia Government Budget Value

Name: Saudi Arabia Government Budget Value
Creator: Agentic Investor

Saudi Arabia · Annual series · EC-SA-GBV

Latest, 2025

-276.60B SAR

-160.97B SAR from 2024

Open interactive chartSaudi Arabia Government Budget Value in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: -231.10B SAR, with an 80% interval of -768.82B SAR to 368.63B SAR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	-250.05B SAR	-564.18B SAR	167.05B SAR
2027	-241.88B SAR	-598.42B SAR	183.18B SAR
2028	-231.10B SAR	-768.82B SAR	368.63B SAR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

At least 6 complete tests are required; 5 are available.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (5 tests, 3 won)
Direction: n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (8 of 15 calls right in 5 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (3 turns in 5 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 2% lowerError ratio 0.98; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 3 / 5Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2011-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 87%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 22% of the 9 earlier readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	-276.60B SAR
2024	-115.62B SAR
2023	-80.95B SAR
2022	103.86B SAR
2021	-73.45B SAR
2020	-293.90B SAR
2019	-132.60B SAR
2018	-173.86B SAR
2017	-238.49B SAR
2016	-311.06B SAR
2015	-362.23B SAR
2014	-65.54B SAR
2013	180.35B SAR
2012	374.09B SAR
2011	291.09B SAR
2010	87.73B SAR
2009	-86.63B SAR
2008	580.92B SAR
2007	176.55B SAR
2006	280.36B SAR
2005	217.86B SAR
2004	107.09B SAR
2003	36.00B SAR
2002	-20.50B SAR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.