AgenticInvestor

Saudi Arabia Government Spending

Saudi Arabia · Quarterly series · EC-SA-GSP

Latest, Q2 2026

228.80B SAR

-9.3% from Q1 2026

Open interactive chartSaudi Arabia Government Spending in the app

331.5B203.9B76.22BQ1 2008Q2 2027
History through Q2 2026, the forecast path to Q2 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for Q2 2027: 237.76B SAR, with an 80% interval of 216.76B SAR to 260.40B SAR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
Q3 2026243.84B SAR230.50B SAR257.81B SAR
Q4 2026281.39B SAR227.31B SAR331.52B SAR
Q1 2027255.59B SAR227.91B SAR281.66B SAR
Q2 2027237.76B SAR216.76B SAR260.40B SAR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+34%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 7 won)
Direction
81%No clear edge over a coin flip (26 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points
19 of 19Anticipated most turns (19 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
34% lowerError ratio 0.66; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
7 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 69% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
Q2 2026228.80B SAR
Q1 2026252.28B SAR
Q4 2025270.87B SAR
Q3 2025236.07B SAR
Q2 2025217.96B SAR
Q1 2025229.78B SAR
Q4 2024291.31B SAR
Q3 2024241.13B SAR
Q2 2024241.88B SAR
Q1 2024226.67B SAR
Q4 2023280.71B SAR
Q3 2023223.58B SAR
Q2 2023217.94B SAR
Q1 2023211.81B SAR
Q4 2022267.81B SAR
Q3 2022207.98B SAR
Q2 2022214.13B SAR
Q1 2022176.00B SAR
Q4 2021243.15B SAR
Q3 2021182.69B SAR
Q2 2021186.18B SAR
Q1 2021168.31B SAR
Q4 2020241.62B SAR
Q3 2020182.66B SAR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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