AgenticInvestor

South Sudan Food Inflation YoY

South Sudan · Monthly series · EC-SS-FI

Latest, October 2024

105.8%

+5.00pp from September 2024

Open interactive chartSouth Sudan Food Inflation YoY in the app

164.9K82.22K-490.4November 2014October 2025
History through October 2024, the forecast path to October 2025 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2025: 165.0%, with an 80% interval of -308.2% to 2662.4%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2024157.7%-128.8%454.2%
December 2024152.8%-146.1%549.3%
January 2025160.1%-170.6%780.2%
February 2025164.3%-107.6%694.4%
March 2025170.8%-177.1%985.4%
April 2025168.6%-229.0%1500.9%
May 2025165.3%-342.6%2340.7%
June 2025157.4%-490.4%3361.2%
July 2025166.9%-436.7%3653.9%
August 2025161.8%-420.2%3413.4%
September 2025161.7%-365.1%3315.2%
October 2025165.0%-308.2%2662.4%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+4%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
Direction
69%No clear edge over a coin flip (100 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
27 of 75Anticipated some turns (75 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2012-11-01 to 2024-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 59% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2014.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2024105.8%
September 2024100.8%
August 2024386.9%
July 2024368.4%
June 2024367.6%
May 2024245.5%
April 202464.5%
March 2024186.0%
February 2024116.6%
January 2024105.9%
December 202322.5%
November 2023-97.4%
October 2023-97.6%
September 2023-97.4%
August 2023-99.0%
July 2023-17.7%
June 2023-11.4%
May 2023-14.2%
April 202356.1%
March 2023-7.0%
February 20238.2%
January 2023-45.6%
December 20225.7%
November 2022-10.4%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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