Venezuela Imports

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-17%Trails the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 2 won)

Direction

41%No clear edge over a coin flip (13 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)

Turning points

6 of 14Anticipated some turns (14 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

17% higherError ratio 1.17; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

2 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2011-06-01 to 2019-03-014 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2019-03-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.