Venezuela Retail Sales YoY

Name: Venezuela Retail Sales YoY
Creator: Agentic Investor

Venezuela · Monthly series · EC-VE-RSYY

Latest, January 2019

-53.5%

+2.70pp from December 2018

Open interactive chartVenezuela Retail Sales YoY in the app

History through January 2019, the forecast path to January 2020 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for January 2020: -32.4%, with an 80% interval of -50.5% to -9.1%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
February 2019	-53.2%	-75.2%	-23.0%
March 2019	-52.0%	-81.8%	-7.7%
April 2019	-51.2%	-61.5%	-35.3%
May 2019	-49.5%	-63.5%	-26.5%
June 2019	-47.4%	-88.9%	20.0%
July 2019	-45.4%	-88.6%	25.0%
August 2019	-42.9%	-97.6%	45.0%
September 2019	-40.2%	-107.4%	60.3%
October 2019	-37.7%	-84.9%	29.4%
November 2019	-35.2%	-178.3%	158.7%
December 2019	-33.6%	-123.2%	83.8%
January 2020	-32.4%	-50.5%	-9.1%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +14%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 7 won)
Direction: 76%No clear edge over a coin flip (73 of 96 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points: 18 of 51Anticipated some turns (51 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 14% lowerError ratio 0.86; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 7 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2011-02-01 to 2019-01-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2019-01-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 1% of the 119 earlier readings since February 2009.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
January 2019	-53.5%
December 2018	-56.2%
November 2018	-50.3%
October 2018	-50.3%
September 2018	-47.8%
August 2018	-44.7%
July 2018	-29.8%
June 2018	-36.5%
May 2018	-16.8%
April 2018	-11.8%
March 2018	-21.6%
February 2018	-27.8%
January 2018	-8.7%
December 2017	-19.9%
November 2017	-1.8%
October 2017	-0.5%
September 2017	-2.2%
August 2017	-2.6%
July 2017	-9.0%
June 2017	-3.0%
May 2017	-14.4%
April 2017	-17.1%
March 2017	-3.7%
February 2017	-3.9%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.