AgenticWTS (Argus) vs. WTI Trade Month Futures
Energy · Monthly series · CM-AFH1.NYMEX
Latest, October 2026
-1.57 USD (exchange quote)
-0.37 USD (exchange quote) from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: -0.94 USD (exchange quote), with an 80% interval of -2.85 USD (exchange quote) to 0.12 USD (exchange quote).
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | -1.52 USD (exchange quote) | -2.70 USD (exchange quote) | -0.19 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2026 | -1.40 USD (exchange quote) | -2.92 USD (exchange quote) | -0.03 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2027 | -1.15 USD (exchange quote) | -3.37 USD (exchange quote) | 0.75 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2027 | -1.04 USD (exchange quote) | -3.54 USD (exchange quote) | 1.02 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2027 | -0.94 USD (exchange quote) | -4.07 USD (exchange quote) | 1.52 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2027 | -0.93 USD (exchange quote) | -2.82 USD (exchange quote) | 0.51 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2027 | -0.84 USD (exchange quote) | -3.25 USD (exchange quote) | 0.98 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2027 | -0.79 USD (exchange quote) | -4.08 USD (exchange quote) | 1.67 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2027 | -0.78 USD (exchange quote) | -3.00 USD (exchange quote) | 0.80 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2027 | -0.76 USD (exchange quote) | -3.77 USD (exchange quote) | 1.21 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2027 | -0.82 USD (exchange quote) | -3.88 USD (exchange quote) | 1.03 USD (exchange quote) |
| October 2027 | -0.94 USD (exchange quote) | -2.85 USD (exchange quote) | 0.12 USD (exchange quote) |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +10%Matches the no-change baseline over 10 tests (10 tests, 6 won)
- Direction
- 64%No clear edge over a coin flip (77 of 120 calls right in 10 tests)
- Turning points
- 17 of 54Anticipated some turns (54 turns in 10 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 10% lowerError ratio 0.90; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 6 / 10Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2016-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare four classes, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 18% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | -1.57 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2026 | -1.20 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2026 | -0.94 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2026 | -1.61 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2026 | -2.13 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2026 | -2.26 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2026 | -1.34 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2026 | 2.78 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2026 | -3.03 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2026 | -2.24 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2025 | -1.68 USD (exchange quote) |
| November 2025 | -0.55 USD (exchange quote) |
| October 2025 | -0.40 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2025 | -0.10 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2025 | -0.01 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2025 | -0.28 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2025 | -0.31 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2025 | -0.16 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2025 | -0.25 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2025 | -0.01 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2025 | 0.33 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2025 | 0.20 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2024 | -0.42 USD (exchange quote) |
| November 2024 | -0.68 USD (exchange quote) |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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