AgenticVietnam Balance of Trade
Trade & External · Monthly series · VNBOT
Latest, October 2026
7.31B USD
+6.04B USD from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 2.27B USD, with an 80% interval of -753.4M USD to 5.90B USD.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 3.02B USD | 1.07B USD | 5.25B USD |
| December 2026 | 2.59B USD | -2.02B USD | 8.05B USD |
| January 2027 | 3.09B USD | -1.31B USD | 8.37B USD |
| February 2027 | 1.74B USD | -5.66B USD | 10.25B USD |
| March 2027 | 2.23B USD | -1.31B USD | 6.68B USD |
| April 2027 | 1.33B USD | -1.94B USD | 4.97B USD |
| May 2027 | 692.7M USD | -6.12B USD | 6.96B USD |
| June 2027 | 1.58B USD | -2.41B USD | 6.21B USD |
| July 2027 | 1.53B USD | -2.98B USD | 6.28B USD |
| August 2027 | 2.96B USD | -3.32B USD | 10.49B USD |
| September 2027 | 2.02B USD | -1.51B USD | 6.05B USD |
| October 2027 | 2.27B USD | -753.4M USD | 5.90B USD |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 14% lowerError ratio 0.86; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Trade turns to sustained surplus, +$3.02bn forecast for Nov 2026 after +$7.31bn October surge.
From -$5.21bn in May 2026 to +$7.31bn in Oct 2026, driven by Samsung and Apple-supplier electronics export surge.
Forecast: +$3.02bn Nov 2026 then positive monthly surpluses through Oct 2027, supported by record FDI and Samsung semiconductor projects.
Global electronics demand and stronger US exports lifted turnover past $1.01tn in 10 months, underpinning recent surpluses.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 7.31B USD |
| September 2026 | 1.27B USD |
| August 2026 | -110.0M USD |
| July 2026 | -3.59B USD |
| June 2026 | -2.64B USD |
| May 2026 | -5.21B USD |
| April 2026 | -3.99B USD |
| March 2026 | -670.0M USD |
| February 2026 | -1.01B USD |
| January 2026 | -1.78B USD |
| December 2025 | -640.0M USD |
| November 2025 | 1.23B USD |
| October 2025 | 2.60B USD |
| September 2025 | 2.85B USD |
| August 2025 | 3.72B USD |
| July 2025 | 2.29B USD |
| June 2025 | 2.86B USD |
| May 2025 | 560.0M USD |
| April 2025 | 580.0M USD |
| March 2025 | 1.63B USD |
| February 2025 | -1.55B USD |
| January 2025 | 3.02B USD |
| December 2024 | 520.0M USD |
| November 2024 | 1.06B USD |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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