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Vietnam Exports YoY YTD

Trade & External · Monthly series · VNEXP

Latest, October 2026

27.9%

+3.13pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartExports YoY YTD in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 25.0%, with an 80% interval of 13.3% to 41.3%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202629.0%27.0%31.0%
December 202629.6%27.5%31.9%
January 202735.7%15.7%61.8%
February 202736.0%21.9%56.1%
March 202731.9%21.0%46.9%
April 202730.5%16.0%50.8%
May 202729.0%16.2%47.1%
June 202728.3%13.1%49.9%
July 202728.7%13.8%51.0%
August 202726.8%14.3%44.9%
September 202726.6%14.5%43.6%
October 202725.0%13.3%41.3%

Model: TiRex (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

AI confidence

Not evaluated

The serving model has no matching evaluation yet.

Model: TiRex (foundation model)

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Commentary

Exports YoY YTD to rise to +29.56% by Dec 2026, peaking at +35.99% in Feb 2027.

Near-term: forecast +29.02% Nov and +29.56% Dec versus Oct +27.89%, driven by electronics FDI and Samsung's $1.5bn chip testing plan.

Medium-term: forecast peak +35.99% Feb 2027, supported by strong US and China electronics demand and front-loading into global supply chains.

Later: forecast easing to +24.96% Oct 2027 with wide uncertainty, exposed by large electronics import dependence and trade deficits with China.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202627.9%
September 202624.8%
August 202622.7%
July 202622.1%
June 202621.5%
May 202619.9%
April 202620.3%
March 202619.4%
February 202618.7%
January 202630.2%
December 202517.4%
November 202516.7%
October 202516.8%
September 202516.7%
August 202515.6%
July 202515.7%
June 202515.5%
May 202515.1%
April 202513.1%
March 202510.7%
February 20258.5%
January 2025-4.0%
December 202414.1%
November 202414.2%

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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