AgenticVietnam Imports YoY YTD
Trade & External · Monthly series · VNIMP
Latest, October 2026
37.1%
+0.99pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 21.7%, with an 80% interval of -4.0% to 45.1%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 37.8% | 36.3% | 39.3% |
| December 2026 | 37.9% | 36.4% | 39.5% |
| January 2027 | 26.9% | -19.9% | 75.2% |
| February 2027 | 32.4% | 15.7% | 50.1% |
| March 2027 | 31.0% | 7.6% | 55.2% |
| April 2027 | 29.5% | 4.5% | 54.8% |
| May 2027 | 28.1% | 5.4% | 50.7% |
| June 2027 | 26.3% | 2.2% | 49.2% |
| July 2027 | 24.8% | 1.5% | 46.2% |
| August 2027 | 24.0% | 2.2% | 44.5% |
| September 2027 | 22.5% | -1.5% | 44.9% |
| October 2027 | 21.7% | -4.0% | 45.1% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 29% lowerError ratio 0.71; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 9 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Imports forecast to reach +37.94% in Dec 2026 then fall to +26.93% in Jan 2027, signaling a reversal.
Trend: +30.02% (May) → +37.09% (Oct); driven by electronics input surge, memory price spikes and FDI manufacturing ramp-up (Samsung, Foxconn).
Model: +37.94% Dec 2026 → +26.93% Jan 2027 (80% CI -19.93,75.17); reflects base effects, Tet timing and SBV credit-control measures.
Path: decline to +21.73% Oct 2027; driven by import-volume normalization, weaker external electronics demand and slower global investment inflows.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 37.1% |
| September 2026 | 36.1% |
| August 2026 | 34.7% |
| July 2026 | 34.2% |
| June 2026 | 32.7% |
| May 2026 | 30.0% |
| April 2026 | 29.0% |
| March 2026 | 26.6% |
| February 2026 | 25.9% |
| January 2026 | 49.2% |
| December 2025 | 19.8% |
| November 2025 | 18.9% |
| October 2025 | 19.3% |
| September 2025 | 19.5% |
| August 2025 | 18.7% |
| July 2025 | 18.9% |
| June 2025 | 19.1% |
| May 2025 | 18.8% |
| April 2025 | 18.7% |
| March 2025 | 17.2% |
| February 2025 | 15.9% |
| January 2025 | -2.5% |
| December 2024 | 16.1% |
| November 2024 | 15.8% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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