AgenticInvestor

Switzerland Business Confidence Index

Switzerland · Monthly series · EC-CH-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

107.6%

-1.50pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartSwitzerland Business Confidence Index in the app

128.588.448.3November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 101.1%, with an 80% interval of 91.8% to 109.0%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026106.8%104.5%109.1%
December 2026105.2%100.3%109.9%
January 2027104.5%99.2%109.6%
February 2027104.2%100.5%107.7%
March 2027104.5%96.7%111.7%
April 2027104.4%98.1%110.2%
May 2027104.4%94.9%113.1%
June 2027104.0%94.6%112.6%
July 2027103.2%95.0%110.7%
August 2027102.5%88.2%115.1%
September 2027101.6%92.5%109.5%
October 2027101.1%91.8%109.0%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+16%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
Direction
73%No clear edge over a coin flip (105 of 143 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
17 of 77Anticipated some turns (77 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
16% lowerError ratio 0.84; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 78% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026107.6%
September 2026109.1%
August 2026107.5%
July 2026104.2%
June 2026103.1%
May 2026100.0%
April 202698.9%
March 202699.0%
February 2026105.9%
January 2026103.8%
December 2025107.3%
November 2025104.5%
October 2025102.6%
September 202595.3%
August 202591.7%
July 202598.0%
June 202594.2%
May 202597.8%
April 202596.3%
March 2025100.8%
February 2025100.0%
January 2025100.6%
December 202498.5%
November 202497.6%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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