AgenticInvestor

Israel Food Inflation YoY

Israel · Monthly series · EC-IL-FI

Latest, September 2026

1.4%

+0.77pp from August 2026

Open interactive chartIsrael Food Inflation YoY in the app

7.892.085-3.72October 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 2.8%, with an 80% interval of 0.5% to 5.3%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20261.1%0.0%2.2%
November 20260.6%-1.3%2.4%
December 20260.8%-0.7%2.6%
January 20271.4%-0.0%3.0%
February 20271.6%-0.5%4.0%
March 20271.4%-1.5%4.6%
April 20271.1%-1.4%4.0%
May 20271.7%-0.1%3.8%
June 20272.4%0.9%4.2%
July 20272.5%0.8%4.5%
August 20272.7%0.5%5.3%
September 20272.8%0.5%5.3%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+12%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction
61%No clear edge over a coin flip (87 of 143 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
44 of 66Anticipated most turns (66 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
12% lowerError ratio 0.88; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 39% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20261.4%
August 20260.6%
July 20261.1%
June 20261.4%
May 20262.7%
April 20262.9%
March 20262.6%
February 20262.3%
January 20262.1%
December 20253.0%
November 20252.6%
October 20251.7%
September 2025-0.1%
August 20251.2%
July 20252.9%
June 20254.3%
May 20253.4%
April 20254.7%
March 20254.3%
February 20253.5%
January 20254.8%
December 20243.6%
November 20245.0%
October 20246.4%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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