AgenticInvestor

Israel Tourist Arrivals

Israel · Monthly series · EC-IL-TA

Latest, October 2026

150,100.0 pts

+10.8% from September 2026

Open interactive chartIsrael Tourist Arrivals in the app

485.7K199.9K-85.96KNovember 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 170,856.1 pts, with an 80% interval of 71,156.1 pts to 285,108.2 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026144,777.3 pts64,293.8 pts202,369.9 pts
December 2026138,273.9 pts54,431.5 pts200,181.2 pts
January 2027130,478.7 pts-102.2 pts240,554.9 pts
February 2027136,033.1 pts-27,596.5 pts288,309.2 pts
March 2027143,449.1 pts-67,534.2 pts360,695.6 pts
April 2027161,681.2 pts-85,964.2 pts398,838.9 pts
May 2027166,915.1 pts38,815.8 pts294,067.8 pts
June 2027153,761.4 pts22,084.8 pts300,086.8 pts
July 2027155,940.6 pts67,452.2 pts254,954.7 pts
August 2027161,142.3 pts60,719.2 pts274,766.7 pts
September 2027165,286.7 pts78,918.7 pts263,964.4 pts
October 2027170,856.1 pts71,156.1 pts285,108.2 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+29%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 10 won)
Direction
81%Beats a coin flip (116 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
39 of 55Anticipated most turns (55 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
29% lowerError ratio 0.71; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 50% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026150,100.0 pts
September 2026135,500.0 pts
August 2026115,900.0 pts
July 2026109,300.0 pts
June 202681,900.0 pts
May 202664,400.0 pts
April 202636,600.0 pts
March 20269,400.0 pts
February 2026115,900.0 pts
January 2026120,000.0 pts
December 2025138,800.0 pts
November 2025122,500.0 pts
October 2025128,800.0 pts
September 2025113,700.0 pts
August 2025118,200.0 pts
July 202585,000.0 pts
June 202555,300.0 pts
May 2025124,000.0 pts
April 2025164,000.0 pts
March 2025100,700.0 pts
February 202588,200.0 pts
January 202578,800.0 pts
December 202475,900.0 pts
November 202461,500.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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