AgenticInvestor

Israel Unemployed Persons

Israel · Monthly series · EC-IL-UP

Latest, September 2026

143,800.0 pts

+9.8% from August 2026

Open interactive chartIsrael Unemployed Persons in the app

225.6K154.5K83.3KOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 144,480.2 pts, with an 80% interval of 83,344.8 pts to 209,512.3 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 2026142,514.5 pts127,714.0 pts157,220.7 pts
November 2026142,774.6 pts113,116.7 pts172,431.1 pts
December 2026143,401.2 pts133,362.0 pts153,754.9 pts
January 2027143,869.2 pts119,943.1 pts168,331.3 pts
February 2027144,287.5 pts119,953.0 pts168,985.5 pts
March 2027144,566.4 pts132,173.0 pts157,413.7 pts
April 2027144,847.2 pts120,896.6 pts169,550.4 pts
May 2027145,079.4 pts103,358.6 pts188,264.4 pts
June 2027145,086.4 pts113,265.5 pts177,819.8 pts
July 2027144,928.0 pts90,545.1 pts201,426.0 pts
August 2027144,693.8 pts83,298.9 pts209,729.9 pts
September 2027144,480.2 pts83,344.8 pts209,512.3 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
-1%Matches the no-change baseline over 11 tests (11 tests, 5 won)
Direction
53%No clear edge over a coin flip (70 of 132 calls right in 11 tests)
Turning points
21 of 77Anticipated some turns (77 turns in 11 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
1% higherError ratio 1.01; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
5 / 11Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2015-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 26% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 2026143,800.0 pts
August 2026131,000.0 pts
July 2026148,200.0 pts
June 2026128,000.0 pts
May 2026128,100.0 pts
April 2026123,900.0 pts
March 2026125,700.0 pts
February 2026121,200.0 pts
January 2026145,200.0 pts
December 2025141,200.0 pts
November 2025140,400.0 pts
October 2025145,700.0 pts
September 2025140,100.0 pts
August 2025138,800.0 pts
July 2025143,900.0 pts
June 2025125,300.0 pts
May 2025142,700.0 pts
April 2025124,900.0 pts
March 2025118,700.0 pts
February 2025124,300.0 pts
January 2025125,300.0 pts
December 2024119,200.0 pts
November 2024121,800.0 pts
October 2024114,400.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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