AgenticInvestor

Italy Fiscal Expenditure

Italy · Monthly series · EC-IT-FE

Latest, August 2026

39.70B EUR

-50.6% from July 2026

Open interactive chartItaly Fiscal Expenditure in the app

171.2B93.87B16.49BSeptember 2016August 2027
History through August 2026, the forecast path to August 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for August 2027: 43.28B EUR, with an 80% interval of 30.28B EUR to 63.11B EUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
September 202661.01B EUR43.23B EUR83.08B EUR
October 202666.00B EUR37.32B EUR102.07B EUR
November 202681.08B EUR70.19B EUR94.41B EUR
December 2026119.10B EUR69.71B EUR171.25B EUR
January 202744.62B EUR27.72B EUR69.50B EUR
February 202777.91B EUR30.32B EUR137.06B EUR
March 202786.62B EUR47.47B EUR135.06B EUR
April 202775.92B EUR57.88B EUR100.38B EUR
May 202777.30B EUR43.68B EUR120.42B EUR
June 202788.43B EUR37.03B EUR150.98B EUR
July 202780.27B EUR56.23B EUR109.88B EUR
August 202743.28B EUR30.28B EUR63.11B EUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+53%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
88%Beats a coin flip (127 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
60 of 83Anticipated most turns (83 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
53% lowerError ratio 0.47; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-09-01 to 2026-08-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 22% of the 119 earlier readings since September 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
August 202639.70B EUR
July 202680.40B EUR
June 2026108.20B EUR
May 202665.60B EUR
April 202665.10B EUR
March 202666.00B EUR
February 2026106.00B EUR
January 202653.00B EUR
December 202595.00B EUR
November 202581.70B EUR
October 202552.40B EUR
September 202559.20B EUR
August 202540.10B EUR
July 202570.40B EUR
June 2025116.30B EUR
May 202577.90B EUR
April 202567.98B EUR
March 202590.27B EUR
February 202550.36B EUR
January 202543.43B EUR
December 2024101.47B EUR
November 202476.52B EUR
October 202469.10B EUR
September 202459.04B EUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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