AgenticInvestor

Italy New Orders

Italy · Monthly series · EC-IT-NO

Latest, December 2020

123.0 pts

+12.1% from November 2020

Open interactive chartItaly New Orders in the app

138.295.3852.6January 2011December 2021
History through December 2020, the forecast path to December 2021 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2021: 122.5 pts, with an 80% interval of 109.7 pts to 135.8 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 2021110.4 pts101.3 pts119.7 pts
February 2021120.8 pts114.3 pts127.0 pts
March 2021127.6 pts122.5 pts133.3 pts
April 2021110.9 pts100.4 pts121.2 pts
May 2021121.1 pts111.6 pts130.9 pts
June 2021126.8 pts116.1 pts138.2 pts
July 2021128.5 pts120.6 pts136.9 pts
August 202181.8 pts73.1 pts90.8 pts
September 2021120.5 pts114.7 pts126.2 pts
October 2021121.1 pts112.9 pts129.5 pts
November 2021118.3 pts107.9 pts129.5 pts
December 2021122.5 pts109.7 pts135.8 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+45%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
Direction
75%No clear edge over a coin flip (108 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
79 of 84Anticipated most turns (84 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
45% lowerError ratio 0.55; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2009-01-01 to 2020-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 98% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2011.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 2020123.0 pts
November 2020109.7 pts
October 2020113.8 pts
September 2020112.4 pts
August 202071.2 pts
July 2020109.4 pts
June 2020100.2 pts
May 202076.7 pts
April 202052.6 pts
March 202087.6 pts
February 2020109.6 pts
January 2020105.3 pts
December 2019114.9 pts
November 2019104.5 pts
October 2019112.4 pts
September 2019108.8 pts
August 201967.3 pts
July 2019117.8 pts
June 2019114.1 pts
May 2019116.9 pts
April 2019102.6 pts
March 2019119.2 pts
February 2019110.1 pts
January 2019107.4 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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