Macedonia Business Confidence Index

Name: Macedonia Business Confidence Index
Creator: Agentic Investor

Macedonia · Monthly series · EC-MK-BCOI

Latest, December 2022

24.4%

-0.30pp from November 2022

Open interactive chartMacedonia Business Confidence Index in the app

History through December 2022, the forecast path to December 2023 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2023: 24.6%, with an 80% interval of 15.6% to 30.7%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
January 2023	24.4%	23.4%	25.4%
February 2023	24.4%	22.8%	25.9%
March 2023	24.4%	21.6%	26.9%
April 2023	24.5%	20.3%	27.8%
May 2023	24.5%	19.7%	28.6%
June 2023	24.5%	18.2%	29.7%
July 2023	24.6%	19.7%	28.4%
August 2023	24.5%	20.5%	27.7%
September 2023	24.6%	19.7%	28.2%
October 2023	24.6%	18.2%	29.2%
November 2023	24.6%	17.4%	29.7%
December 2023	24.6%	15.6%	30.7%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +9%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction: 69%No clear edge over a coin flip (100 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points: 8 of 38Anticipated some turns (38 turns in 12 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 9% lowerError ratio 0.91; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2011-01-01 to 2022-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2022-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 41% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2013.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
December 2022	24.4%
November 2022	24.7%
October 2022	24.4%
September 2022	25.6%
August 2022	25.3%
July 2022	25.2%
June 2022	24.6%
May 2022	24.1%
April 2022	25.1%
March 2022	25.5%
February 2022	26.8%
January 2022	26.5%
December 2021	27.2%
November 2021	27.6%
October 2021	28.0%
September 2021	28.3%
August 2021	28.6%
July 2021	28.4%
June 2021	28.6%
May 2021	28.9%
April 2021	29.1%
March 2021	28.0%
February 2021	27.6%
January 2021	26.9%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.