AgenticInvestor

Macedonia Central Bank Lending Rate

Macedonia · Monthly series · EC-MK-LR

Latest, October 2026

4.8%

+0.00pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartMacedonia Central Bank Lending Rate in the app

10.475.3740.2733November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 4.7%, with an 80% interval of 1.0% to 10.5%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 20264.8%4.6%4.9%
December 20264.7%4.4%5.1%
January 20274.7%4.0%5.3%
February 20274.7%3.9%5.5%
March 20274.7%3.0%6.5%
April 20274.7%2.0%8.0%
May 20274.7%0.3%10.2%
June 20274.6%0.7%9.9%
July 20274.7%0.9%10.0%
August 20274.7%0.9%10.1%
September 20274.7%1.0%10.3%
October 20274.7%1.0%10.5%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+17%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction
70%No clear edge over a coin flip (68 of 97 calls right in 11 tests)
Turning points
n/aToo few tests (1 turn, 8 needed) (1 turn in 12 tests, 5 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
17% lowerError ratio 0.83; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 66% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 20264.8%
September 20264.8%
August 20264.8%
July 20264.8%
June 20264.8%
May 20264.5%
April 20264.5%
March 20264.5%
February 20264.5%
January 20264.5%
December 20254.5%
November 20255.8%
October 20255.8%
September 20255.8%
August 20255.8%
July 20255.8%
June 20255.8%
May 20255.8%
April 20255.8%
March 20255.8%
February 20255.8%
January 20256.0%
December 20246.0%
November 20246.3%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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