Macedonia Temperature

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+16%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 5 won)

Direction

75%No clear edge over a coin flip (27 of 36 calls right in 12 tests)

Turning points

6 of 14Anticipated some turns (14 turns in 12 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

16% lowerError ratio 0.84; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

5 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1989-12-01 to 2024-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

89%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.