Poland Business Confidence Index

Name: Poland Business Confidence Index
Creator: Agentic Investor

Poland · Monthly series · EC-PL-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

-6.6%

-0.80pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartPoland Business Confidence Index in the app

History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: -6.4%, with an 80% interval of -11.1% to -2.3%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
November 2026	-7.7%	-10.5%	-4.7%
December 2026	-8.3%	-11.7%	-4.4%
January 2027	-6.2%	-10.1%	-2.6%
February 2027	-5.3%	-9.3%	-1.8%
March 2027	-4.8%	-8.9%	-1.4%
April 2027	-4.7%	-8.8%	-1.2%
May 2027	-4.8%	-8.9%	-1.3%
June 2027	-5.5%	-9.6%	-2.0%
July 2027	-5.6%	-9.9%	-2.1%
August 2027	-5.1%	-9.3%	-1.5%
September 2027	-5.3%	-9.7%	-1.7%
October 2027	-6.4%	-11.1%	-2.3%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Needs refresh

The data refresh is due. Confidence will be reassessed against the refreshed history.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: n/aNot evaluated
Direction: n/aNot evaluated
Turning points: n/aNot evaluated

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Model comparison

Comparison not readyA forecast and enough history for rolling backtests are required.

Reading

It is above 44% of the 118 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
October 2026	-6.6%
September 2026	-5.8%
August 2026	-5.1%
July 2026	-5.3%
June 2026	-6.0%
May 2026	-4.1%
April 2026	-4.4%
March 2026	-5.2%
February 2026	-3.2%
January 2026	-4.1%
December 2025	-11.6%
November 2025	-7.9%
October 2025	-8.0%
September 2025	-6.5%
August 2025	-5.6%
July 2025	-7.7%
June 2025	-7.7%
May 2025	-6.4%
April 2025	-6.2%
March 2025	-6.3%
February 2025	-8.1%
January 2025	-9.6%
December 2024	-13.0%
November 2024	-11.7%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.