Slovenia Loans To Private Sector
Slovenia · Monthly series · EC-SI-LPS
Latest, September 2026
11.13B EUR
-0.1% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 11.24B EUR, with an 80% interval of 10.22B EUR to 12.49B EUR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 11.19B EUR | 11.04B EUR | 11.36B EUR |
| November 2026 | 11.20B EUR | 11.11B EUR | 11.31B EUR |
| December 2026 | 11.10B EUR | 10.39B EUR | 11.71B EUR |
| January 2027 | 11.20B EUR | 10.57B EUR | 11.86B EUR |
| February 2027 | 11.22B EUR | 10.66B EUR | 11.84B EUR |
| March 2027 | 11.21B EUR | 10.62B EUR | 11.87B EUR |
| April 2027 | 11.27B EUR | 10.73B EUR | 11.89B EUR |
| May 2027 | 11.25B EUR | 10.33B EUR | 12.32B EUR |
| June 2027 | 11.24B EUR | 10.38B EUR | 12.23B EUR |
| July 2027 | 11.28B EUR | 10.32B EUR | 12.42B EUR |
| August 2027 | 11.29B EUR | 10.30B EUR | 12.48B EUR |
| September 2027 | 11.24B EUR | 10.22B EUR | 12.49B EUR |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +1%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 5 won)
- Direction
- 58%No clear edge over a coin flip (83 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 22 of 69Anticipated some turns (69 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 1% lowerError ratio 0.99; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 5 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 99% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 11.13B EUR |
| August 2026 | 11.14B EUR |
| July 2026 | 11.12B EUR |
| June 2026 | 11.09B EUR |
| May 2026 | 11.11B EUR |
| April 2026 | 11.12B EUR |
| March 2026 | 10.92B EUR |
| February 2026 | 10.95B EUR |
| January 2026 | 10.84B EUR |
| December 2025 | 10.55B EUR |
| November 2025 | 10.69B EUR |
| October 2025 | 10.67B EUR |
| September 2025 | 10.46B EUR |
| August 2025 | 10.54B EUR |
| July 2025 | 10.44B EUR |
| June 2025 | 10.32B EUR |
| May 2025 | 10.34B EUR |
| April 2025 | 10.30B EUR |
| March 2025 | 10.32B EUR |
| February 2025 | 10.36B EUR |
| January 2025 | 10.19B EUR |
| December 2024 | 10.02B EUR |
| November 2024 | 10.27B EUR |
| October 2024 | 10.23B EUR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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