Slovenia Money Supply M0
Slovenia · Monthly series · EC-SI-M0
Latest, September 2026
7.02B EUR
-0.7% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 7.19B EUR, with an 80% interval of 7.04B EUR to 7.36B EUR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 7.05B EUR | 7.02B EUR | 7.09B EUR |
| November 2026 | 7.07B EUR | 7.03B EUR | 7.10B EUR |
| December 2026 | 7.13B EUR | 7.08B EUR | 7.18B EUR |
| January 2027 | 7.09B EUR | 6.95B EUR | 7.22B EUR |
| February 2027 | 7.09B EUR | 6.94B EUR | 7.23B EUR |
| March 2027 | 7.09B EUR | 6.95B EUR | 7.24B EUR |
| April 2027 | 7.12B EUR | 6.97B EUR | 7.28B EUR |
| May 2027 | 7.16B EUR | 7.03B EUR | 7.31B EUR |
| June 2027 | 7.19B EUR | 7.06B EUR | 7.33B EUR |
| July 2027 | 7.23B EUR | 7.06B EUR | 7.42B EUR |
| August 2027 | 7.21B EUR | 7.05B EUR | 7.38B EUR |
| September 2027 | 7.19B EUR | 7.04B EUR | 7.36B EUR |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +46%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
- Direction
- 88%Beats a coin flip (126 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 33 of 51Anticipated most turns (51 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 46% lowerError ratio 0.54; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 86%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 97% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 7.02B EUR |
| August 2026 | 7.07B EUR |
| July 2026 | 7.09B EUR |
| June 2026 | 7.05B EUR |
| May 2026 | 7.05B EUR |
| April 2026 | 7.00B EUR |
| March 2026 | 6.95B EUR |
| February 2026 | 6.95B EUR |
| January 2026 | 6.96B EUR |
| December 2025 | 7.02B EUR |
| November 2025 | 6.99B EUR |
| October 2025 | 6.94B EUR |
| September 2025 | 6.94B EUR |
| August 2025 | 6.97B EUR |
| July 2025 | 6.95B EUR |
| June 2025 | 6.93B EUR |
| May 2025 | 6.92B EUR |
| April 2025 | 6.85B EUR |
| March 2025 | 6.82B EUR |
| February 2025 | 6.83B EUR |
| January 2025 | 6.83B EUR |
| December 2024 | 6.87B EUR |
| November 2024 | 6.82B EUR |
| October 2024 | 6.79B EUR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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